Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region

Issue week: November 8 2024 (Wk 45)

 

POWER MARKETS

WEST  Whereas prices in Northern California are starting to rise as temperatures begin to drop, prices in Southern California have remained relatively flat as conditions have stayed relatively warm so far in November. For the month to date, Day Ahead prices are averaging $26.52/MWh in Mid-C, $39.15/MWh in NP15, and $30.41/MWh in SP15. Both the morning and the evening ramps are fortifying to meet the growing demand for heat, which the grid should be able to handle as long as wind and solar generation remains high.

ERCOT  Term prices have been mixed this week as term prices for natural gas have shifted slightly higher. Term heat rates for Q4 have been mostly flat, and the contango from CY25 to CY28 has tightened from $3.00/MWh to approximately $2.00/MWh over the course of the week. Real-time prices for November are averaging in the mid-$30s/MWh, marked by several high-priced intervals, particularly in the evening, when solar shutters and wind output has failed to compensate. Moreover, the current ORDC scarcity adder, despite being just under $1.00/MWh for the month, is higher than it has been in some time.

EAST Although cooler weather had begun to increase the amount of load dedicated to heating, it has not been brisk enough this week to keep the Day Ahead market from out-performing Real Time in all regions. Averaging $34.07/MWh in PJM, $33.97/MWh in NYI-SO, and $37.63/MWh in ISO-NE's WCMASS, Day Ahead prices have hovered solidly above Real Time prices, which have managed averages of $29.06/MWh, $30.59/MWh, and $35.89/MWh, respectively. The market may continue to wait for the full onslaught of typical heating demand next week, for the first part of the week is expected to be mostly dry and sunny with temperatures possibly reaching the 60s in many cities.

NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending November 1, U.S. inventories found room for another 69 Bcf, slightly more than the assumed injection of 67 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 3,932 Bcf, up by 4.2% from a year ago and 5.8% above the five-year average for the same week.• The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending November 8, U.S. inventories gained 42 Bcf, amassing almost 25% more than the estimated addition of 34 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 3,974 Bcf, up by 4.1% from a year ago and 6.1% above the five-year average for the same week.

At the time of this writing, the NYMEX Henry Hub prompt month of December fetched $2.95/MMBtu, notably higher than the $2.72/MMBtu captured for this report last week. Gas Daily Prices at North-west Sumas, PG&E Citygate, and SoCal Citygate now average $1.00/MMBtu, $2.33/MMBtu, and $1.75/MMBtu, respectively, for the month. These figures are lower than at this time last year but, amid the prospect of a drop in temperatures of 5-7 degrees within the coming week, may start to creep up, particularly in Northern California, where the comparatively warm start to November has enabled storage caverns to reinforce supplies in anticipation of the budding heating demand.